"Our worst case scenario, from our perspective, is that we have to be in the habit of annually looking to the mountains to see what is the precipitation," Campbell said. Planning has become much harder as shifting baselines make the future of water availability less predictable. That's what these warming temperatures continue to tell us." Tough to plan That's what we've seen the last 23 years. "Man, we need to continue to plan for the worst here," Udall said.
For example, if snowpack is at 130%, the number would appear substantially lower if current totals were compared to normal snowpack going back further than 30 years. But the rapidly accelerating effects of climate change mean the current window from 1991 to 2020 sticks out from previous 30-year periods because it includes the hottest-ever period in America's recorded history.īecause of that, snowpack data tells a somewhat deceptive story. In spring 2021, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shifted how it calculates averages for all of its data.Įvery 10 years, NOAA moves the three-decade window that it uses for averages. The ground has become parched and soaks up snowmelt before the water has a chance to reach the places where people divert and collect it.Īlready, Udall said, winters with 90% of average snowpack have led to only 50% spring runoff because thirsty soil acts like a sponge.Įven the concept of "average" has changed due to warming temperatures. In recent years, scientists have sounded the alarm about soils drying out. Warming has driven a raft of worrying environmental changes across the region. Those higher temperatures have already caused a 15% drop in streamflows across the region. Since 1970, temperatures in the Colorado River Basin have gone up by three degrees Fahrenheit. And that is extremely unlikely." The long viewĪ string of wet years is unlikely because of rising temperatures driven by climate change, Udall said. "We would need five or six years at 150% snowpack to refill these reservoirs. "It's great to see a big snowpack," Udall said. "Invariably, you'll get caught with your pants down if you think you know what's going to happen." "Everybody is so eager to make an early call on this," said Brad Udall, a water and climate researcher at Colorado State University. This year, snowfall totals are well above average, but climate scientists say the winter is far from over and conditions could change bringing less precipitation. In fact, more than two-thirds of the river begins as snow in Colorado. Before water flows through rivers, pipelines and canals to cities and farms across the region, it starts as high-altitude snow. Snow piled high in the Rockies is crucial for the Colorado River - a water lifeline for people from Wyoming to Mexico in an area commonly referred to as the Colorado River Basin. Climate scientists, though, say the 40 million people who use the river's water should take the good news with a grain of salt.
That's good news for the Colorado River, where that moisture hints at a possible springtime boost for massive reservoirs that have been crippled by drought. Heavy rains have pummeled California, and the Rocky Mountains are getting buried with snow. This winter, the West has been slammed by wet weather. This winter has already delivered snow totals above 130% of average, but climate scientists say it will take more than one wet winter to pull the arid West out of a 23-year drought. It will cool to 40 degrees overnight.Skiers cruise down the slopes at Snowmass ski area in Colorado. Wind could gust near 15 mph with more afternoon thunderstorms. Wednesday will be mostly sunny with a high of 64 degrees. Thunderstorms will move into the region after lunchtime and calm by midnight with a low of 40 degrees. The sun will pop back out Tuesday as the high just breaks 60 degrees. The traveler in the center of this screen slid off on the right shoulder and is facing the wrong way just east of EJMT. Take your time and slow down across the mountain highways this morning. From sunrise to sundown, Denver could get another inch of rain. Winds could gust up to 20 mph at times throughout the day and evening. Rain will start to slow in the afternoon when the high reaches 45 degrees under clear skies overnight with a low of 36. Another eight inches of snow could fall in some areas. Overnight snow fell as low as Castle Rock and along the Palmer Divide. Areas above 6500 feet will see snow with snowfall rates around 1/2" with the heavier snow showers. Widespread precipitation will continue to fall across the mountains, foothills, adjacent plains & Palmer Divide through noon. Digital Replica Edition Home Page Close Menu
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